Spheres of influence have made a dramatic comeback during the second Trump era. Dreams of maintaining the rules-based order are shattered. There is no going back, and the only question is how this chaotic period will reset global affairs. The United States is trying to assert its dominance over the Americas in a revival of the Monroe Doctrine. China clearly wants to supplant the United States as the pre-eminent power in the Indo-Pacific and enhance its global economic reach. Russia is waging war in Ukraine to restore its Soviet-era near abroad. It is the long-predicted return of 19th-century multipolarity. This does not mean that the interests of small nations no longer matter. In truth, they could not be more important.
This has been the vital insight of British foreign policy at its very best. Great powers rise and fall. Alliances and rivalries shift and change. In this carousel of geopolitical struggle there are the small nations and medium-ranking powers who can lend tactical and strategic advantages to the great powers. Britain has always seen its role, especially during the 19th century, as an advocate for the interests of small nations, which can provide a balancing force against the larger powers of the day. George Canning, the British Foreign Secretary in 1807 to 1809 and 1822 to 1827, was one of the greatest practitioners of this approach. His genius was to demonstrate how the principled defence of smaller countries could serve grand strategy.
Developing this impulse could not have happened without Canning’s ministerial experience during the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. It was an epochal period that cast a lengthy shadow, right up to the First World War. A powerful France summoned all its strength to try to isolate and weaken Britain. Although the Battle of Trafalgar secured British naval dominance, it was hard diplomatic work assembling and reassembling the coalitions of different European states – large and small – that tried to end Napoleon’s rule at various points. Denmark and Portugal were key players during this period alongside Russia, Prussia and Austria. While by no means great powers, they could still provide crucial strategic benefits.
