About 80 years ago, as World War II drew to a close, engineer and inventor Vannevar Bush submitted to President Harry S. Truman his report on the future of scientific research in America. Science: the Endless Frontier became the most important document shaping American federal science policy, resulting in the creation of the National Science Foundation in 1950, new agencies like the Department of Energy’s Office of Science and DARPA, which laid the groundwork for the internet, and a twenty-one-fold increase in R&D spending from 1953 to 2024 (adjusted for inflation).
Yet American science faces major challenges today. Innovations may be getting harder to find. The majority of published research findings are more likely to be false than true, based on mathematical analysis. Even prestigious scientists have committed research misconduct. Burnout and quality-of-life issues for scientists are getting worse. And recent advances in AI and large-language models (LLMs), while unlocking exciting opportunities, are also allowing for the rapid creation of fake but convincing papers.
