Executive Summary
Traditional industrial robots use limited AI, so they are often left out of frontier robotics policy debates. But industrial robots could become significantly more AI-integrated in the near future. As they become more AI-integrated, leadership in their manufacturing and adoption may also become an increasingly important source of national power. This report analyzes the market for industrial robots and finds that:
- China is still a secondary player in industrial robotics. Japanese and European firms account for about 85 percent of the traditional industrial robots market. However, China’s market share has grown significantly over the last decade and appears poised to continue growing.
- China is more competitive in cheaper, more flexible, software-intensive robot categories, such as collaborative robots. These types of robots are a useful proxy for future AI-integrated industrial robots and suggest that China may be more competitive in AI-integrated industrial robots than its current share of the overall market might suggest.
- The component market looks similar: China does not control most major robot components, which can usually be sourced from the U.S., Japan, Europe, or other allied suppliers. But Chinese component suppliers are expanding quickly, and their products are significantly cheaper.
The U.S. is not competitive in industrial robot manufacturing today. But Japan and Europe are, and most components remain available outside China. This leaves room for a non-Chinese industrial robotics supply chain, but only if the U.S. and its allies can keep pace as the industry moves toward greater AI integration.
Accompanying this report is a publicly available database tracking relevant features of companies producing industrial robotics as well as other features of the market.
