Executive Summary
The United States currently leads across the artificial intelligence stack, from advanced chips to frontier models and applications. But that lead is narrowing. China is rapidly building capability and moving to contest nascent global AI markets. Sustaining American advantage means becoming the default supplier of AI to the world, securing customers, developers, and allies before China can offer a credible alternative. The U.S. faces a closing window to win.
American firms are building impressive export platforms, but market forces alone are unlikely to deliver what U.S. strategy requires. Importers often lack the capacity to assess AI’s long-term value; exporting firms face coordination problems and financing gaps; and commercial priorities may steer exports toward lucrative partners rather than strategic ones, or toward configurations that prioritize short-term sales over durable integration and security—for example, chip deals for sovereignty projects unlikely to succeed. Without targeted intervention, strategically important markets risk being undersupplied.
This paper argues for a focused, high-impact exports program targeting two strategic clusters: treaty allies and critical swing states in the Global South. Three instruments can close the gap between what the market may deliver and what American strategy requires. Coordination can align exporters into consortia and shape stack composition. Diplomacy can elicit demand, address sovereignty concerns, and promote alignment on standards. Financing can derisk projects in capital-constrained markets and accelerate deployments of strategic importance. Early successes can then serve as blueprints, enabling the program to scale.
Executed well, this approach would anchor global AI diffusion to the American stack, embedding U.S. technology and standards before credible alternatives emerge. It would reinforce American competitiveness while delivering broad-based gains abroad. To secure that outcome, America should act now; the window is closing.
