China spent the last 30 years making itself an indispensable exporter of strategic raw materials. Today, China is the primary producer for 26 of 50 minerals identified as critical to the U.S.1 That is leverage that it can wield against the U.S. — in trade, military relations, and industrial competition. China seems newly willing to use that leverage during tariff negotiations with President Trump. Beginning in April, China used export licensing to choke American industry, especially automakers. That is leverage that can wield rare earths used for essential magnets, specialized alloys, and many of our most advanced weapon platforms. After coming to an agreement with President Trump, China loosened its controls. But it kept its temporary licensing regime in place. At any time, they can cut off our supply.
Lessons Learned
This isn’t our first time facing a threat like this. Japan’s South Asian blitz in 1942 cut America’s natural rubber supply by more than 90 percent. Without rubber, we wouldn’t have been able to make tank treads, tires, or other necessary military equipment.2 In short, we lacked the raw materials necessary to fight. It was only thanks to the successes of America’s synthetic rubber program that we avoided defeat.
Rubber was just one resource. Today, we need to shift our supply chains for dozens of critical raw materials. Just as our leaders did during World War II, we now need to embrace strategic flexibility and try out a range of solutions: substitution, alternative sourcing, and innovation. America’s multitude of responses to its wartime rubber shortage provides relevant lessons for the present.
