This piece originally appeared in the Oxford Middle East Review.
In his recent state visit to Saudi Arabia, President Trump articulated his vision for the Middle East: “commerce, not chaos”. This brief description points to an emerging reality: Riyadh and Washington’s partnership is shifting, increasingly based on shared commercial interests and a grand strategy for regional security. President Trump used this visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to solidify and attempt to implement that strategy.
Trump’s trip to Riyadh came at a time particularly suited to dealmaking. With his tariff policies, President Trump is allegedly making a concerted effort to reorder America’s trade dynamics and domestic production capabilities. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is pursuing its own economic diversification plan: Saudi Vision 2030. Shifting away from a historical reliance on oil production, Saudi’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to reorient the Kingdom towards tourism, finance, entertainment, and advanced technologies. These incentives point towards increased bilateral investment between the two partners. During the trip, President Trump signed a record-breaking package of $600 billion in investment commitments from Saudi Arabia.
These investments could lead to collaboration on critical mineral access and processing, a shared concern for both. The United States, which is highly reliant on China for critical minerals to build weapons and commercial products, supplies Saudi Arabia with 80 percent of its weapons. If America loses access to these essential inputs, a real risk considering China’s recent export controls on certain heavy rare earth elements, this imperils Saudi Arabia’s weapon supply chain.
