This piece appeared in the National Interest.
Minerals are the newest front in US-China economic warfare. In recent months, the People’s Republic of China has accelerated its usage of mineral export controls to choke American access to critical minerals, prompting many policymakers to fear a complete Chinese embargo. But that’s a misunderstanding of Beijing’s goals. Instead, it’s become clear that Chinese policymakers are balancing strategic disruption with the desire to keep America dependent on Chinese markets.
If China were to entirely shut off exports to America, the US economy would lose the ability to manufacture essential military and commercial goods. But an embargo like this would also accelerate US efforts to find alternative sources of key inputs, reducing US demand for Chinese goods. That’s the last thing China wants.
China doesn’t want to crash our economy; it wants to keep us hooked in order to shape our policy. The selective usage of export controls keeps us reliant while demonstrating their leverage. And as long as Chinese imports are cheap and available, and America fails to develop domestic sources, their dominance will continue.
